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What a wagering requirement actually costs, in money
Every casino publishes its bonus terms. Almost none of them publish the one number that decides whether the offer is worth taking: how much of the bonus survives the turnover.
It is not complicated. Wagering requirement × what it applies to = total turnover. Turnover × house edge = what you are expected to lose while clearing it. Subtract that from the bonus and you have your answer.
A $100 deposit with a $100 bonus — what is left after wagering
Requirement applied to deposit plus bonus, which is the common case. Green means the bonus is still worth something after expected losses; red means clearing it costs more than the bonus is worth.
| Games played | Edge | 20× wagering | 30× wagering | 40× wagering | 50× wagering |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Originals (Dice, Mines, Plinko) | 1% | +$60 | +$40 | +$20 | +$0 |
| Most slots | 4% | −$60 | −$140 | −$220 | −$300 |
| Low-RTP slots | 8% | −$220 | −$380 | −$540 | −$700 |
The pattern is blunt: on ordinary slots, a 100% bonus with anything above 20× wagering is expected to cost more than it gives. On 1% edge originals the same offer stays positive much longer. The bonus is not the product — the turnover is.
How much you actually have to wager
The second thing terms hide is the base. “40× wagering” on the bonus alone and on deposit plus bonus are two different offers, and the difference is exactly double.
| Deposit + bonus | 20× | 30× | 40× | 50× |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 + $50 | $2,000 | $3,000 | $4,000 | $5,000 |
| $100 + $100 | $4,000 | $6,000 | $8,000 | $10,000 |
| $500 + $500 | $20,000 | $30,000 | $40,000 | $50,000 |
| $1,000 + $1,000 | $40,000 | $60,000 | $80,000 | $100,000 |
Game weighting: the multiplier behind the multiplier
Most bonus terms count table games at 10–20% toward the requirement. If blackjack counts 10%, every dollar wagered clears ten cents — a 40× requirement becomes 400× on that game.
People reach for blackjack because its house edge is low. The arithmetic goes the other way: a tenfold increase in required turnover swamps any edge advantage. Clearing on the game with the highest weighting almost always beats clearing on the game with the lowest edge.
One more thing the terms assume about you
Bonus tables are usually written around a $1,000 deposit. We read deposits directly from public blockchains, and at Stake the average is $625 — while 65.2% of all deposits are under $100.
A headline “up to $2,000” describes a group most depositors are not in. Run the numbers on the amount you would actually deposit, not the one in the banner.
Deposit figures summed from six public blockchains — see the deposit tracker.
Rakeback and VIP levels
Rakeback works differently from a bonus: it returns a percentage of your wagering regardless of outcome, so it lowers the effective house edge instead of adding a lump sum with strings attached.
The comparison that matters: a 5% rakeback on 1% edge games cuts your expected loss per unit wagered from 1% to 0.95%. That is small per bet and meaningful over volume — and unlike a bonus, it carries no turnover requirement to trap the money.
VIP levels are reached on cumulative wagering, so the honest way to evaluate them is the same as above: what turnover does the next level need, and what is the expected cost of producing it?
Run your own numbers in the EV calculator
What we measured this month
A monthly read of what our bet tracker recorded — how often games actually pay, and where the money moves across crypto casinos.
Common questions
How do you calculate the real value of a casino bonus?
Multiply the wagering requirement by whatever it applies to — the bonus alone, or the deposit plus bonus — to get the total turnover. Multiply that turnover by the house edge of the games you will play. That product is your expected loss while clearing the bonus. Subtract it from the bonus amount and you have what the offer is actually worth.
Is a 100% bonus with 40× wagering worth taking?
Depends entirely on which games you clear it on. On a $100 deposit with a $100 bonus and 40× wagering applied to deposit plus bonus, you must turn over $8,000. On 4% house edge slots that costs $320 in expected losses, so the $100 bonus is worth about $-220 — a net negative. On 1% edge Stake Originals the same turnover costs $80, leaving roughly $20.
Why does game weighting matter so much?
Many bonuses count table games at 10-20% toward the wagering requirement. If blackjack counts 10%, every $1 wagered only clears $0.10, so a 40× requirement effectively becomes 400× on that game. The low house edge of blackjack does not compensate for a tenfold increase in required turnover.
Does a bonus ever come out positive?
Yes — when the wagering multiple is low, it applies to the bonus only rather than deposit plus bonus, and you clear it on low-edge games. A 20× requirement on the bonus alone, played on 1% edge originals, costs about 20% of the bonus in expected losses. The tables below show where the line falls.
Where to go next
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